2006 HIGHLIGHTS
JAN 2006
HIGHLIGHTS
..Warmest January on record in Winnipeg and much of Manitoba..
January 2006 will go down in the history books as Winnipeg’s mildest January since records began in 1873. With
a mean monthly temperature of -7.4C at Winnipeg
airport (see monthly
stats),
January 2006 will finish over 10 degrees above normal (normal -17.8C), easily
beating the previous warmest January of 1944 which finished at -10.6C.
Thus, January 2006 will beat the 1944 record by a full 3 degrees C which is an
extraordinary margin when talking about mean monthly temperatures (consider
that Winnipeg’s next 10 mildest Januarys are separated by only 2 degrees
C overall - see table below) This shows how
unusual the weather pattern has been this winter, not only in its deviation
from normal, but in its persistence. Since Dec 21st, Winnipeg
daily temperatures have been above normal every day but one (see January
graph), and
most of those days have been 10 to 15 degrees above normal. In effect, southern
Manitoba
has been stuck in perpetual March like weather since the official start of
winter, with plenty of cloud, melting snow, occasional freezing rain, and
messy roads. Interestingly however, no record daily highs were established
during January. Instead, it was the
absence of cold rather than record warmth that was the main story during the
month. There were only 3 days that
dropped below -20C when a normal January would see at least 20 days. The coldest day of the
month was -32.9C reading on the 22nd, the month’s only -30C reading.
Last January saw 10 days of -30C or lower.
There were 6 days during the month with above freezing temperatures,
with a monthly maximum of +2.8C on January 23rd. Heating degree days for the
month totalled only 787 units, some 30% lower than
the normal 1100 during January resulting in a considerable savings on heating
bills for the month.
The
main cause for the unusual stretch of mild weather has been the displacement of
the Arctic vortex which normally sits over the Canadian high Arctic
or Hudson Bay.
This year, for some unknown reason, the cold pool of air has been displaced
over Siberia,
giving eastern Europe one of its severest winters in
decades. This has allowed a mild Pacific flow to sweep over much of Canada,
maintaining mild conditions for weeks on end, and keeping any cold air from
surging south. The net result has been one of the mildest Januarys on record in
many parts of the country (see January
anomaly map),
particularly over the eastern Prairies which were over 10 degrees above normal
for the month.
Winnipeg's
top ten warmest Januarys since 1873 are as follows..
1. 2006..... - 7.4C
2. 1944..... -10.6C
3. 1942..... -11.4C (would have
been warmest if not for very cold first week)
4. 1992..... -11.5C
5. 1990..... -11.6C
6. 1987..... -11.8C
6. 1919..... -11.8C
8. 1958..... -11.9C
9. 1931..... -12.2C
10.
1983..... -12.4C
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Long Range
Guidance:
* Alternate
Environment Canada Day 3-5 forecast (FOCN12)
* 5 day Max temp anomaly - HPC
* 5
day FM Temperature Guidance - Manitoba
* 10
day MRF loop
* 10
day mean temperature anomaly forecast - Canada (CMC)
* 5 - 10 day mean temperature
forecast - Canada (MRF)
* 5 - 10 day mean precipitation
forecast - Canada (MRF)
* 6-10
day outlook (CPC)
* 8-14
day outlook (CPC)
* AO/NAO/PNA Outlooks (CPC)
* 0-16
day GFS
* 15 day ensemble
loops - 500
mb pattern, 500
mb height anomaly, 850
mb temp anomaly, homepage
* Multi-model ensemble site
* Long
Range Model Comparison (ECMWF/GFS/CMC/NOGAPS)
* ECMWF
3-6 day
* ECMWF progs - Day
3, Day
4, Day
5, Day
6, Day
7
Among
some of the more useful links for long range forecasting..
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Diagnostic Discussion
Most
Recent 2 Months Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Animation
ENSO
Impacts by Region
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