HIGHLIGHTS

Wed Dec 18 - Storm system finally brings snow to southern Manitoba
A storm system moving slowly over the Dakotas finally brought some much anticipated snow to southern Manitoba, after being virtually snowfree so far this December. The bulk of the snow fell over western Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan where 30 to 50 cm of snow was recorded over 2 days through Thursday evening. Areas further east, such as Winnipeg, received lesser amounts from the storm with about 5 to 10 cm up to Thursday evening, but enough to ensure a white Christmas for southern Manitoba.

Sun Dec 15 - Continuing above normal
Temperatures that have been hovering close to the freezing mark over the weekend will begin to show a gradual decrease on Monday as gusty southeast winds tap a cooler airmass over Ontario and the Great Lakes. Some snow is also possible for the Red River valley over the next day or so as the remnants of a moist Pacific airmass spreads over the Prairies. Snow has been a rarity this month over southern Manitoba with only 0.4 cm of snow so far this month in Winnipeg, and only a trace amount of snow left on the ground. Temperatures most of this week will remain above normal, although they should be a few degrees cooler than last week which averaged some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Long gange guidance is indicating that temperatures will gradually cool down by the end of the week, but may still remain above normal right into the Christmas holidays.

Sun Dec 8 - Mild week on tap
A mild Pacific flow is developing across the Prairies this week, which will bring a pleasant week of above normal temperatures and dry conditions over southern Manitoba. After a brisk weekend, temperatures in Winnipeg are expected to climb to the freezing mark on Monday, and should remain at that level or even above through the week. Friday looks especially mild with temperatures over southern Manitoba likely reaching or exceeding +5C. Long range guidance is suggesting that any significantly cooler air will be delayed until sometime next week.

Sun Nov 17 - Mid November thaw on the way
After a very cold week which saw temperatures drop to the -20C mark for the first time this season, a milder flow of Pacific air will bring a welcome thaw to Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba this week. Brisk southerly winds on Sunday pushed temperatures up to the freezing mark, but a shift of the winds into the west on Monday and Tuesday will tap even milder air from the western Prairies where temperatures were around the +5C mark on Sunday. As a result, temperatures in Winnipeg should climb to +4 or +5C both Monday and Tuesday with a return to sunny skies. A brief cooldown midweek will be replaced by milder conditions again for the end of the week before colder air returns next weekend.

OCTOBRRRRR 2002 COLDEST ON RECORD
It was an early start to winter this year as Winnipeg recorded its coldest October since records began in 1872. The mean monthly temperature of -0.4C at YWG airport easily surpassed the previous coldest October back in 1887 with a mean of +0.4C, and also marked the first time in 130 years of records that an October average finished below freezing. The month was characterized by persistently below normal temperatures that began in the last part of September and continued unabated through October. Only 2 days of the month were above normal, the 10th and 11th when temperatures briefly climbed to a monthly high of 16C. Otherwise temperatures were well below normal all month with only 6 days reaching 10 degrees or higher. Normally October sees 17 days in the double digits. The persistent cold was particularly evident in the last half of the month when temperatures failed to climb above the +5C mark after the 14th. Normal highs for October start at 15C on the 1st and fall to 7C by the 31st. The early start to winter this year is in stark contrast to last year which saw dry and mild conditions right through November. In fact, October 2002 will finish colder and snowier than November 2001.

Sun Oct 20 - Another record low set at YWG airport
The continuing cold spell produced another record low at YWG airport as the temperature fell to -12.8C early Sunday morning, eclipsing the previous record low for Oct 20th of -11.1 set back in 1889. The record low is the 3rd within the past week as Manitoba remains locked in a below normal temperature pattern. In the past 30 days, Winnipeg has seen only 3 days above normal. The temperature has failed to reached the 10 degree mark since Oct 11th, and it's possible the 10 degree mark may not be reached for the rest of the month.

Wed Oct 16 - Cold night sets two record lows
A clear cold night over Southern Manitoba allowed temperatures to drop to record lows at the Winnipeg airport for both Oct 15 and 16. The temperature dropped to -10C by midnight of the 15th beating the previous record low of -8.2 for the date set back in 1991. The thermometer continued to drop to a low of -12.4C by the morning of the 16th, setting another record low (previous low -10.0C in 1952) The record lows come in the midst of a cold snap over Manitoba that has seen below normal temperatures for most of October. Amazingly, the cold temperatures are being registered without the help of snow on the ground, just unseasonably cold dry air. That may change by Friday as a system moves into southwestern Manitoba bringing the potential of 5 to 10 cm of snow. Unfortunately below normal temperatures are expected to continue for the foreseeable future over Manitoba as a strong Arctic vortex over Hudson Bay continues to pump cold air over the eastern Prairies.

Thu Oct 10 - Get ready for unseasonably cold Thanksgiving weekend
Manitobans eager for a few days of sun and mild temperatures this long holiday weeekend are going to be disappointed as an unseasonably cold blast of Arctic air moves in just in time for the holidays. A sharp cold front will cross Southern Manitoba on Friday shifting winds into the northwest and tapping very cold air from the western Prairies. By Saturday, temperatures in southern Manitoba will be hovering just above the freezing mark with cold northwest winds and occasional flurries. Heavier lake effect snow is possible southeast of Lakes Winnipeg and Manitoba Saturday and Saturday night. Sunday should see a bit of moderation in wind and temperatures, but conditions will remain well below normal for this time of year. By Thanksgiving Monday, a system tracking in from the northwest may bring a coating of snow to southern Manitoba with highs remaining in the single digits. Long range guidance offers little relief from the cold weather.. below normal temperatures are expected over Manitoba over the next 10 days.

Sat Oct 5 - Winnipeggers awake to surprise snowfall
Residents of Winnipeg and southern Manitoba awoke to a blanket of snow Saturday morning as the first snowfall of the season made a surprise visit to the area. About 2 or 3 cm of wet snow accumulated on lawns and rooftops in Winnipeg between 5 and 8 am as a weak disturbance passed through Southern Manitoba. The snow had all melted by midday as temperatures climbed to +4C and sunshine began to break through. This comes a year to the day when the first snowflakes of the season were reported in Winnipeg, although no accumulations were recorded. The first measurable snow cover last fall was recorded on the morning of Oct 25th when 1-2 cm fell in Winnipeg, with much greater amounts south and east of the city where an early season blizzard dumped 20 to 25 cm of snow in places like Grand Forks, Emerson and Kenora. Persistent snow cover did not start in Winnipeg last year until Nov 30th, after the city's 4th warmest November on record.

Sun Sept 29 - What happened to our sunny Sunday??
Sunday was forecast to be a sunny mild day over Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba with gusty southerly winds sending temperatures close to the 20 degree mark. Instead, residents awoke to a damp cool day with cloudy skies, fog and chilly winds. Cloudy skies persisted much of the day with temperatures struggling to reach 15 degrees. What happened? This was a classic case of "When good forecasts go bad", which can often happen at this time of year. As the nights get longer, moisture close to the ground has a better chance of condensing into low cloud and fog.. which can become trapped under a low level inversion if warmer air is trying to move into the area. This low level moisture is difficult to predict more than a few hours in advance.. and can often develop and spread rapidly at night and early morning. This is exactly what happened on this particular Sunday. Extensive low cloud and fog developed over the Dakotas Saturday night and quickly spread north into southern Manitoba around sunrise Sunday. By noon, gusty southerly winds had spread the low cloud throughout southern Manitoba into the Interlake region. (see satellite picture) Had this cloud not developed over the Dakotas early Sunday morning.. the sunny and mild forecast for Manitoba would have verified. Welcome to fall in the Prairies..

Sat Sept 28 - Winnipeg sets record low
The temperature fell to a frosty -7.0C at the Winnipeg Airport Saturday morning establishing a new record low for Sept 28. The previous record for the date was -6.1C set back in 1961. The record low comes 3 days after Winnipeg's first frost of the season on the morning of Sept 25th when the temperature hit -2C at the airport. The average date for the first fall frost in Winnipeg is around Sept 22nd.

Mon Sept 16 - Enjoy the summerlike weather, major cooldown by the end of the week
Sunny summerlike weather is on tap for Winnipeg and Southern Maniotba for the first couple of days this week, but a major change in the weather pattern is being forecast by long range models for the end of the week. After sunny skies and temperatures in the upper twenties on Tuesday, a low pressure system and cold front will cross southern Manitoba on Wednesday bringing a few showers. A second cold front will push through on Friday bringing much cooler air in from Alberta on gusty northwest winds. By the weekend, high temperatures may only be near 10 degrees over Southern Manitoba with a hard frost likely by Sunday or Monday.

Sat Sept 7 - So close, and yet so far..
A stubborn frontal system stalled over the Red River Valley brought a dramatic contrast in temperatures over southern Manitoba today. While areas west of the Red River saw overcast skies and temperatures only in the teens, localities east of the Red broke into sunshine by afternoon allowing temperatures to soar into the upper 20s and low 30s. Winnipeg remained right under the front line between the two airmasses, climbing to 22 degrees at the airport and 25C at the Forks where winds briefly went to the south in the afternoon. However, just an hour's drive south or east of Winnipeg, temperatures climbed to 28 degrees at Emerson and Steinbach, while hitting 33C in Sprague. Even hotter temperatures were recorded south of the border with Grand Forks, ND climbing to a sizzling 35C, one of the hottest days of the year for them. In contrast, areas west of the Perimeter failed to break 20C with Portage recording a high of only 16C.

A satellite picture taken at 12:45 pm shows how close sunshine and warm temperatures got to Winnipeg. Extensive low cloud covers most of the Red River valley and west, but southeastern Manitoba and North Dakota have cleared nicely, allowing temperatures to soar into the upper 20s. This cloud edge remained virtually stationary for the rest of the day as the frontal trough stalled over Winnipeg. 19Z and 21Z surface analyses clearly show the dramatic temperature contrast across southern Manitoba.

Highs across the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba for Sep 07..

Sprague..............32.5C
La Broquerie.........28.7C (just east of Steinbach)
Steinbach............28.0C
Emerson..............27.6C
Gretna...............23.4C
Winnipeg Forks.......24.7C
Whyte Ridge..........24.2C
Charleswood..........22.6C
Winnipeg Arpt........21.9C
Starbuck.............19.5C
Carman...............17.4C
Portage..............16.0C

Fri Sept 6 - Unsettled weather for the next few days
A stationary storm track across the Dakotas will maintain cloudy skies and occasional shower or thunderstorm activity for the next 3 or 4 days over southern Manitoba. Some of the rainfall could be heavy, particularly with some nighttime thunderstorm activity that is typical with these type of weather patterns. Those in southern Manitoba wishing to see sunny and warm conditions this weekend will not have to travel far. The warm air should sneak over areas south and east of Winnipeg on Saturday, with highs of 32C expected in Grand Forks, only a 2 hour drive away.

Sun Aug 18 - A return to warmer drier weather?
After a rather cool and unsettled first half of August, long range guidance is suggesting that warmer and drier weather will be returning to the Prairies for the latter half of the month. The weather pattern which has been dominated by a large scale upper trough over the Prairies this month is forecast to return to a more zonal flow this week before a strong upper ridge becomes established over the Rockies by next weekend. This will mean a return to more seasonal temperatures this week over the Pariries, followed by above normal temperatures next week. The drier flow will also mean more sunshine and less precipitation over the next couple of weeks. This will be welcome news for farmers who are now entering the critical harvest season. Since August 1st, Winnipeg has seen only 3 days above normal, with at least 10 days of measureable rainfall totalling 80 mm at my site.

Sat Aug 17 - Cool wet weather hits southern Manitoba
An unseasonably strong low pressure system moved across the Dakotas into Northwestern Ontario Aug 16-17th bringing significant rain across southeastern Manitoba along with gusty northwest winds and very cool temperatures. Rain from the system began in Winnipeg around 6 pm Fri Aug 16th and continued through the night into Saturday morning. 40.4 mm of rain was recorded at my site in Charleswood, with general rainfalls of 40-50 mm recorded across the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba. Some rainfall amounts recorded with this system included..

Starbuck.............47.3 mm
Winnipeg Ft Rouge....45.2 mm
YWG Airport..........42.0 mm
Whyte Ridge..........42.0 mm
Steinbach............41.6 mm
Charleswood..........40.4 mm
Winnipeg Forks.......36.6 mm

Sun Aug 11 - Is summer over?
After a sunny and warm July, cooler and unsettled weather has dominated the weather so far in August over the Prairies, and long range models are indicating that this pattern will likely prevail for the next couple of weeks at least. Long range guidance is indicating that below normal temperatures are likely over the Prairies over the next 10 days, along with below normal sunshine and above normal precipitation as a long wave trough settles over the Prairies. Warm weather will be confined over southern Ontario/eastern Canada as well as the West Coast where blocking ridges of high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions in these areas. Our weather pattern in Winnipeg this year has been remarkably similar to that of 1979, which saw a very cool spring (especially May), followed by a nice warm July. Cooler weather returned in August which averaged about 2 degrees below normal, with no 30 degree days during the month. Maximum temperature during August 1979 was only 29.5C (20th) and the lowest was 4.0 (15th) Precipitation was near normal at 76 mm. Could we seeing a repeat this August? Only time will tell, but for the time being, it looks like the summer of 2002 will be winding down on the cool side.

Thu Jul 04 - Heavy Rain swamps Winnipeg and southeastern Manitoba
A slow moving area of thunderstorms Thursday evening brought another round of heavy rain over Winnipeg and southeastern Manitoba. Rainfall amounts ranged from 45 mm downtown to over 80 mm in southern and western parts of the city. At my station, 70 mm fell during the evening, the bulk of it between 8 pm and 10 pm. 35 mm of rain fell between 8 and 9 pm with a peak rainfall intensity of 75 mm/hr recorded during that time. Even heavier rain was recorded southeast of Winnipeg where up to 130 mm of rain was recorded in Steinbach Thursday evening.

Fri June 28 - Prairie heat wave spreads over Manitoba
Record heat that has been baking Alberta and Saskatchewan over the past couple of days is spreading eastward, and promises to bring a stifling Saturday over Southern Manitoba. On Thursday, 38C temperatures were recorded at Meadow Lake, Lloydminster and North Battleford. On Friday, The Pas set a new record with a high of 37.6C. On Saturday, the crest of the heat is expected over the Dakotas and Southern Manitoba, where highs of 35-38C are likely. Winnipeg's record for June 29th is 36.7C set in 1912, and this record may be challenged or broken tomorrow. In addition, humidex values are expected to rise into the low-mid 40s which can lead to heat stroke or heat exhaustion with prolonged outdoor activity. Keep cool and hydrated. The heat wave will be broken Saturday night as a cold front sweeps through the province. This front may trigger some powerful thunderstorms over southern Manitoba, with torrental rains, strong winds, and frequent vivid lightning. Warm but drier and more comfortable conditions are expected to close out the holiday weekend for Sunday and Monday.

Monday June 10 - Heavy rains swamp Southern Manitoba
Another round of showers and thunderstorms spread across Southern Manitoba early Monday morning bringing a second day of heavy rain across the area. Once again, areas south of the TransCanada saw the bulk of the rainfall with 90 mm or more reported along the U.S. border by Monday evening. This now brings two day rain totals of over 150 mm along the international border since Saturday night with estimates of 300 mm over extreme southeastern Manitoba around the Sprague area. Some rainfall statistics up to 7 pm Monday evening include..

                       June 10 rainfall 48 hr rainfall total
                         1 am - 7 pm       til 7 pm Jun 10

Winnipeg South (Ft Rouge).. 50 mm ........... 85 mm
Winnipeg Forks............. 41 mm ........... 74 mm
Charleswood (Rob's Obs).... 39 mm ........... 71 mm
Winnipeg Airport........... 29 mm ........... 59 mm

Sprague.................... 100+ mm (est)..... 300+ mm (est)
Gretna..................... 83 mm ........... 148 mm
Emerson.................... 88 mm ........... 138 mm
Carman..................... 73 mm ........... 111 mm
Starbuck................... 77 mm ........... 111 mm
Steinbach.................. 54 mm ........... 91 mm
Morden..................... 57 mm ........... 90 mm
Kenora..................... 26 mm ........... 83 mm
Brandon.................... 22 mm ........... 38 mm
Portage.................... 18 mm ........... 33 mm
Gimli...................... 23 mm ........... 31 mm

24 hr rainfall map ending 7 am June 11 (Monday event)
24 hr rainfall map ending 7 am June 9 (Sunday event)

The good news is that it appears the bulk of the heavy rain is over.. although scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible mainly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The drenching rains of the past two days however should be over as the main instability moves into Ontario.

Sunday June 9
Heavy rains spread across southern Manitoba early Sunday morning before moving into Northwestern Ontario during the day. The rain was a result of a warm front that developed showers and thunderstorms over the Dakotas Saturday evening and spread northward into Manitoba. The heaviest rain fell over southeastern Manitoba with lesser amounts north of the TransCanada. Some rainfall totals by 7 pm Sunday evening included..

Winnipeg Forks.....30.8 mm
Charleswood........30.5 mm (Rob's Obs)
Winnipeg South.....29.7 mm (Fort Rouge)
Winnipeg Airport...28.5 mm

Gretna.............64.2 mm
Kenora.............57.2 mm
Emerson............50.0 mm
Steinbach..........36.8 mm
Carman.............35.0 mm
Morden.............32.2 mm
Starbuck...........32.0 mm
Brandon............13.8 mm
Portage............12.8 mm
Gimli.............. 8.0 mm

Even heavier rainfall was reported south of the border in North Dakota. Grand Forks was drenched with 4.29" (109 mm) at the airport, with 5.27" (134 mm) falling at the Grand Forks NWS office on the UND campus. (See radar estimated rainfall map for 24 hr period ending 7 am June 9)

At my station, the heaviest rain fell between 6 and 8 am when 24 mm was recorded. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Sunday night into Monday with another 20 to 30 mm possible over southern Manitoba.

Wednesday May 29
A heavy thunderstorm moved across Winnipeg during the afternoon dumping heavy rain, small hail and frequent lightning to the city. At my station, the storm began around 2:50 pm, with a peak rainfall intensity of 79.5 mm/hour recorded at 2:59 pm. By the time the rain stopped around 5 pm, 14.5 mm of rain had fallen at my site. Local rainfall amounts included 8.0 mm at YWG airport, 13.8 mm at the Forks, 8.6 mm in Whyte Ridge, and 18 mm in East Kildonan.

Friday May 24: YWG hits record low
Early morning temperatures plunged to a new record low at YWG airport Friday morning as the thermometer dipped to a frosty -6.3C, eclipsing the previous record low of -4.4C for May 24th set in 1897. The chilly temperatures followed an unseasonably cold day over Winnipeg on the 23rd that saw highs of only 6.5C along with a dusting of snow in the morning.

Thursday May 9: Worst May snowstorm in 35 years blasts Winnipeg
A strong storm system tracking across North Dakota into Northwestern Ontario brought heavy snow to much of southern Manitoba Wednesday night into Thursday. In Winnipeg, the storm began with rain on Wednesday before changing to snow by midnight Thursday. The heavy wet snow continued on Thursday along with strong northerly winds gusting over 70 km/h making for miserable conditions. By the time the snow ended Thursday afternoon, 20.0 cm of snow had been reported at the Winnipeg airport, the heaviest May snowfall since 1967 when 21.1 cm was registered on May 1st. The 20.0 cm snowfall however is somewhat misleading since much of the snow was melting on contact as it fell during the day. As a result, the actual snow depth was never more than 10 cm of heavy wet slush. In total, 30.6 mm of rain and snow was recorded at YWG from the storm since Wednesday afternoon leading to extensive ponding on roadways and some flooded basements.

All time heaviest May snowfalls in Winnipeg

1. May 1, 1967.....21.1 cm
2. May 19, 1931.....20.3 cm
3. May 9, 2002.....20.0 cm
4. May 20, 1882.....15.2 cm
5. May 5, 1938.....13.0 cm
6. May 5, 1931.....12.2 cm

This latest snowfall now puts the May 2002 monthly snowfall total at 29.0 cm, the 2nd snowiest May in Winnipeg since records began in 1872, second only to the 32.5 cm monthly snowfall set in May 1931.

Sunday May 5: Say it isn't snow! - Winter returns to southern Manitoba..
A low pressure system tracking across the Dakotas spread an area of snow over southern Manitoba Sunday morning bringing 5 cm of snow to Winnipeg between 7 am and 1 pm. The snow was accompanied by cold northeast winds of 30 to 50 km/h that created some blowing and drifting snow at times making it feel more like March than May. The 5 cm of snow was the heaviest single day May snowfall in Winnipeg since May 17, 1968 when 7.9 cm fell on the city (although there was a 7.2 cm snowfall that fell over two days on May 10-11, 1979), and also marks the first measureable snowfall in May since May 1997. The snowfall is just the latest reminder that spring has yet to arrive in Manitoba which has seen almost daily below normal temperatures since the end of February. In the 70 days since Feb 24th, Winnipeg has seen only 14 days above normal, and the extended outlook calls for a continuation of below normal temperatures over the next week at least. In fact, there's another chance of measureable snow over Winnipeg and southern Manitoba Wednesday night into Thursday morning (May 8-9th).

Previous occurrences of 1.0 cm or more snowfalls in Winnipeg in May (past 35 years)

1. May 12 1997   1.4 cm
2. May 4 1991   1.8 cm
3. May 1 1991   2.0 cm
4. May 11 1979   2.8 cm
5. May 10 1979   4.4 cm
6. May 1 1975   2.8 cm
7. May 5 1972   3.0 cm
8. May 17 1968   7.9 cm
9. May 20 1967   1.5 cm
10. May 1 1967  21.1 cm

The below normal temperature regime that characterized March persisted through much of April as residents of the Prairies began to wonder if spring was ever going to arrive this year. Mean monthly temperatures at my station were 1.4 deg below normal for April.. a somewhat misleading statistic thanks to a 7 day warm spell in mid April that masked the more prevalent cold pattern for the month. In fact, 22 out of the 30 days were below normal.. which continues a trend that became established in the last week of February over the Prairies. In the period from Feb 24 - April 30, only 13 of 66 days have seen above normal temperatures in Winnipeg, or about 1 in 5.

The only warm weather for the month was a warm spell from April 11th to 17th during which time temperatures climbed to a record high of 22 degrees on the 12th. (old record 21 in 1931) After the 17th, daily highs struggled to reach the 10 degree mark, except for a 21 degree day on April 23rd.

Precipitation was a little below normal.. with 30 mm recorded at my station (normal 36 mm) The bulk of the precipitation fell during the season's first thunderstorm on the evening of the 16th when 13.0 mm fell in just over 30 minutes along with 1 cm hail. Snow for the month totalled 5.4 cm falling on 6 days.. the latest occurrence on April 25th. Persistent snowcover was gone by April 8th.

But as bad as this April has been, things have been worse. In April 1996, the average high was only 3.1 degrees, with a high of only 12.4 for the entire month. April 1956 saw only 1 daily max above 10 degrees all month, with a monthly max of only 11.1C. And after a cool April in 1979, the first 11 days of May 1979 saw highs only in the single digits with some snow observed on 10 of the 11 days.

The winter that wouldn't start turned into the winter that wouldn't finish as cold weather finally settled over the Prairies during March. Daily temperatures were below normal on all but 5 days for the month, with the monthly mean of -10.3 at my site being over 3 degrees below normal, the first month below normal since last October. Precipitation for the month was normal at 23.4 mm, with all but 0.6 mm falling as snow. The greatest pcpn event was a 9.0 cm snowfall from the 8th-9th. Snow cover was persistent through the month, with 5 cm left on the ground by the 31st at my location.

The abnormally mild winter of 2001-2002 continued through much of February. Temperatures averaged 6 degrees above normal at my station, and officially ranked as th 12th mildest Feb on record at YWG airport since 1872 with a mean of -10.0C. Mean daily temps were above normal every day from Feb 4th through 23rd, with a maximum of 5.5C on the 11th. Pcpn was light, with only 8.0 mm for the month on only 5 days.

February marks the 4th consecutive month above normal, and makes the winter of 2001-2002 the 8th warmest on record at YWG since 1872 with a mean of -11.7C, some 4 degrees above normal.

Very mild first half followed by colder than normal second half. Temperatures averaged almost 12 degrees above normal up to Jan 15th.. with temperaturs peaking at 6.6C on Jan 8th. Temps
cooled off for the latter half of the month with a minimum of -31.6C on the 29th. Even so, temperatures for the month finished 5.2 degrees above normal thanks to the abnormally mild start.

Snowfall totalled 33.4 cm, about 14 cm above normal, with almost all of it falling in the colder second half of the month. The heaviest snowfall was 10 cm on the 16th.

Since June 2001, the long range forecast (Day 3 to 5) for the Prairies has been a totally automated computer generated product from Montreal, with no intervention from local human forecasters. This automated product does not forecast abnormally warm or cold conditions well, since the output is skewed towards climatology, i.e. "normal" temperatures, especially towards Day 4 and 5. There are plans to improve long range temperature forecasts based on real time biases, but results are still being evaluated. In the meantime, long range temperature forecasts (Day 3 to 5) from Environment Canada for the Prairies should be used taking the above considerations into account, especially if the weather pattern suggests an extended period of well above or below normal temperatures. Consulting other long range guidance (such as the links below) is recommended to give a better idea of temperature trends expected in the next 5 to 10 days.