Chapter 14    Future Outlook

 Talks between Two Sides of the Strait

       In July 1992, soon after assuming his office, Chris Patten, the last British Governor of Hong Kong, recommended a bill democratizing the election of Hong Kong Legislative Council members.  Chinese Government not only rejected it, but also abused him as “Immortal criminal”.  From this incident, one can see that the promise of “One Country Two Systems” guaranteeing fifty years continuation of capitalism in Hong Kong meant for economy, and does not apply to democracy that usually accompanies with capitalism.  The Chinese Government intends to use the “One Country Two Systems” of Hong Kong and Macao as a model for “unifying Taiwan”.  However, the “One Country Two Systems”, which did not even allow democratizing the Legislative Council, merely created as the Governor’s counseling agency, will certainly not be acceptable to the democratized and progressive Taiwan residents.  Moreover, Hong Kong and Macao, though under colonial rules, majority of their daily necessities depended upon supplies from the neighboring China, and militarily they had neither the will nor the ability to stand against China.  Hong Kong and Macao were compelled to accept “One Country Two Systems”.  Their situations were not comparable to that of Taiwan. 

       On April 27, 1993, Kuomintang regime and Chinese government had had a high level talk in Singapore for the first time, through simulated civil organizations; “Straits Exchange Foundation” (SEF) and “Association for Relation Across Taiwan Straits” (ARATS).  Wan Dao Han, the chairman of ARATS, represented China and Ko Ching Fu, the president of SEF, represented Taiwan in the conference.  Therefore, the meeting was also called “Ko Wan Conference”.  In this meeting, Taiwan’s purpose was to protect the Taiwanese enterprises that advanced to the Mainland, but on the other hand, did not want to give excessive preferences, which may continuously drain capitals from Taiwan to the Mainland.  What China hoped to attain was an early realization of direct passages, aimed to control Taiwanese businessmen through direct exchanges as a start, and help the unification purpose.  The result was like sleeping on the same bed having different dreams, both parties insisted on their own opinions, and the meeting ended with minimal accomplishment.  Nevertheless, through this contact China and Taiwan had at least opened the channel for direct talks between the two parties.

       Since January 1979, upon normalizing Sino-American diplomatic relations, Chinese government had accepted the advice of United States government to seek peaceful solution of Taiwan problems.  From then on, Chinese government’s attitude toward Taiwan changed from “Liberation by force” to “Peaceful unification”, and the Komintang regime changed their slogans from “Counter-attack the Mainland” to “Unify China by Three People Principles”.  Furthermore, Chinese government has called for “Three Exchanges” (Mail, Trade and Navigation), and the Komintang regime replied with “Three Negative Policies” (No contact, No negotiation, and No compromise).  “Unification”, to the Komintang regime, means China will swallow Taiwan like a whale, and it is only natural to refuse.

       However, as the Komintang chairman, Lee Teng-hui could not but profess the “Unification” to internally countermeasure the Conservative Factions centered by the Mainland elders, and to evade the Chinese invasion by force.  There were other reasons, such as to protect the Taiwanese investments in China, which reached more than 10 billion U.S. dollars, and to cope with the China’s trade that increases every year.  Based on “Three Negative Policies”, President Lee Teng-hui set up “National Unification Committee” as advisory agency for China (Mainland) policy to the President in September 1990, and put a “Mainland Committee” (equivalent to Provincial Department) in Administrative Yuan in January 1991, for executing China policies.  In February, while setting up the civil organization “Straits Exchange Foundation”, the “Charter for National Unification” was enacted.  Although no definite schedule was made, the course of “Unification” was set at three stages of Short, Medium, and Long Term.  Moreover, four conditions were attached to the “Unification” that China must have: (1) Political democracy; (2) Free economy; (3) Just society; and (4) Nationalized armed forces.

      In addition to the four conditions of “Unification”, it is not so easy to get over the stages until “Unification”.  At the current “Short Term” stage, the relation with China is under the “Three Negative Policies” limited to mutually beneficial exchanges through civil organizations, and by passing “Medium Term” stage with mutual trust and cooperation at government level, it will finally arrive at the “Long Term” stage of talks on “Unification” between the two governments.  Furthermore, in order to arrive at “Medium Term” stage, it is conditional that Chinese government must: (1) Accept Taiwan as semi-national “Political Entity”; (2) Announce abandonment of attacking Taiwan by force; (3) Not to obstruct Taiwan’s activities in the international communities and accession to the international organizations.  Therefore, neither the four conditions of “Unification”, nor the three conditions to reach “Medium Term” stage, seems to be acceptable to Chinese government, and although the reconciliatory “Singapore Conference” had been realized, the distance toward “Unification” is remote and probably impossible to attain. 

       In 1994, the representatives of “SEF” called upon Beijing, and Wan Dao Han of “ARATS” visited Taipei to have official level talks, representing Chinese government.  Seeking to establish the strategic object of close mutual economic relations, China made some concession in subjects with regard to general affairs, but refused sternly to touch the core of fundamental problem, such as recognition of equal political entities.  In fact, China not only inhibited Taiwan’s intention of seeking a life of its own, but also did not give Taiwan any specific favorable response, except sticking to the policy of “One Country Two Systems”. 

Chinese Plot

      At the Chinese New Year Eve (January 30) of 1995, Chairman Chiang Tze-min of the People's Republic of China spoke at a New Year tea party in Beijing, and exhibited eight points of his views regarding the relation of both sides of the Straits: (1) Adhere to One China policy; (2) Do not oppose Taiwan from developing civil economic and cultural relations with foreign countries; (3) Proceed with peaceful unification talks between the two sides;(4) Chinese will not attack another Chinese; (5) Try hard to develop economic exchanges and cooperation between the two sides; (6) Jointly inherit and expand the superior traditions of Chinese culture; (7) Respect the life style of Taiwanese fellow people and their desire to be their own boss, and protect all of their justified rights and interests; (8) Welcome the leaders of both sides to visit each other, and discuss national affairs together.

       On April 8, President Lee Teng-hui replied the above "Chiang's 8 points", and spoke at the National Unification Committee meeting, presented following assertion: (1) Seek unification of China based on the fact that both sides are ruled separately by different government; (2) Intensify the exchanges of both sides on the Chinese culture; (3) Promote economic and commercial traffics between both sides;(4) Both sides join the international organization on equal entity basis, and by doing this, leaders from both sides encounter naturally; (5) Both sides must insist on resolving all disputes peacefully; (6) Both sides join together in maintaining prosperity of Hong Kong and Macao, and promote democracy for same.

       From Chiang's "eight points" and Lee's "six items", one can see that China sticks to" One China" position, and Lee Teng-hui want to negotiate on the basis of "Division and Divided Rule".  Fundamentally, China deems Taiwan as a renegade province, demands to complete the unification through "peaceful" negotiation; on the other hand, Taiwan deems both sides of the Straits are two political entities with independent sovereignty, must resolve their conflicts by negotiation under the principle of mutual respect.  Lee Teng-hui insisted on adhering to the conditions explained in his "Charters for National Unification", to process the "unification" in various stages.  On the other hand, he also asserted that "Republic of China" is an independent sovereign nation, and did his best to show its existence to the international community.  Though a Taiwanese by birth, Lee Teng-hui inherited the Presidency of the old regime "Republic of China".  In order to stabilize his regime, he roamed between unification and independence, resulted in various contradictions in the foreign and Chinese policies of the Kuomintang government.

                  Accompanying with verbal threat, China not only fired missiles many times and held war maneuvers using Taiwan as virtual enemy, but also actively used unified tactics to isolate, infiltrate, and estrange Taiwan in diplomatic, economic, and cultural fields internationally.  Besides, Chinese government also nurtured numerous “Unification Faction” broken politicians to be their spies.  These so-called “Taiwanese collaborator” or “Taiwanese traitors” are used as insiders in the attempt to overturn the Taiwanese government, to achieve China’s purpose of annexing Taiwan. 

       In recent years, the Communist regime has secretly dispatched flocks of underground operatives penetrating into Taiwan.  According to the estimate made by National Security Bureau, there are more than 30,000 of the fifth columns who carry special missions going underground in Taiwan.  Because these Chinese are difficult to distinguish from the Taiwanese residents, they can easily mingle with the Taiwanese society, wait for a chance to gang up with people belong to the “Unification Faction”, and spread groundless rumors to every section of the entire country, including mass media, cultural, academic, commercial, industrial fields, without exception to the political parties, government officials, active or retired soldiers and the general public, and exploit for the Communist China.  Taking advantage of the fact that some of the people have vague knowledge about China, they instigate the public with the “China-centric thought” or exaggerated haughty claims saying: “China is militarily strong and great” and “21st Century belongs to the Chinese”, etc.  In the bookstore, there are books such as “Leap August 1995” and “Survival Handbook, Prepare for China’s Attack on Taiwan”, whose object is to make Taiwanese lose the will to resist the enemy and run without fight.  By use of unified tactics, China tries to disturb public sentiment and morale, destroy Taiwanese economy and financial market, then gang up with the traitors group in Taiwan to jointly overturn the government, and achieve the ultimate goal of “subverting the enemy without fighting”.

       After Chinese Communist regime took over Hong Kong in July 1997, it directed to Taiwan as the next target, and by use of every possible means, put all its energies to annex Taiwan and achieve the ambition of “unifying” China.  The strategies that they could possibly use are:                                                     

(1)     Subdue Taiwan militarily.  Chinese Communist repeatedly emphasize the three “Joint Statements” which they signed with the United States, aiming to restrict America from selling up-to-date weapons and military equipments to Taiwan, so as to enfeeble Taiwan’s defense capacity.  They also launch test missiles and hold naval and army maneuvers to threaten Taiwan, and reinforce air and sea military strength, including purchase of SU-27 fighters and aircraft carrier from Russia.  By use of the reinforced military power, they plan to siege and blockade Taiwan and cut off Taiwan’s sea freight line and international trade.

(2)     Diplomatically isolate Taiwan.  Use “One China” policy to tie Taiwan down.  Chinese Communist have been using every possible means to obstruct Taiwan from establishing formal diplomatic relation with all the countries in the world, giving fatal blow to every effort of practical diplomacy made by Taiwan, and interrupting Taiwan from entering into the United Nations and other international organizations.  Because Taiwan also insist that there is only one China, though meaning “Republic of China” in Taiwan, but when most of countries in the world recognize “People’s Republic of China” as the only one China, and Chinese Communist declares that Taiwan is a part of China, consequently Taiwan has tied itself up and fallen into the trap without being able to rid itself of its trouble.     

(3)     Economically entangle and burn out Taiwan.  Utilizing the psychology that Taiwanese love to make money, Chinese Communist use economic gains as bait, lure Taiwanese businessmen into investing and building factories in Mainland China.  Consequently, China earned a large amount of foreign exchanges fostering its national wealth.  In the very beginning, only small and medium industries went to invest in Mainland China, but now it developed to large-scale investments of fundamental industries such as petroleum industry and power plant etc.  In future, if Chinese Communist turns ugly, they could pinch the Taiwanese businessmen and burn out the Taiwan economy.  China’s sly tricks of unified tactic are dreadfully sneaky, Taiwanese people and government must be cautious and be on the watch for pitfalls.

(4)   By asserting “Three Passages” and “Four Exchanges”, Chinese Communist intends to destroy Taiwanese psychological defense.  So-called “Three Passages” are “Navigation”, “Mail”, and “Trade”; and “Four Exchanges” are exchanges of “Economy”, “Culture”, “Athletics”, and “Education”.  If all “Three Passages” were put to practice, not only China could dump large quantities of material supply to Taiwan and give heavy blows to Taiwan’s home economy, Chinese Communist’s fifth columns could also penetrate into Taiwan in large numbers to destroy social, economic and political stabilities.  Furthermore, Chinese combat planes and battleships could disguise as commercial planes and ships to attack Taiwan by surprise.  The purpose of  “Four exchanges” is to destroy national consciousness of the Taiwanese, by boosting the propaganda of “Great China Doctrine”, rope in the Taiwanese to accept the “One Country Two Systems”, and ultimately annex Taiwan. 

Security Problem of Taiwan

        Although Taiwan has made some achievements in economic development, and democratization is rapidly in progress, but the most important problem of Taiwan security has not been resolved.  In any country, the first thing any responsible politician would consider with great concern is the issue of national security and defense of his country.  As the first popularly elected President of Taiwan, Lee Teng-hui must consider to establish the foundation of safety assurance, so that Taiwanese descendent generation after generation can live peacefully in Taiwan.  Based on the regulation in the Constitution, Lee Teng-hui can no longer be re-elected, and his term will be expired in a little more than three years (2000).  Therefore, in the next two, three years, it is possible that Taiwan will face with major changes.

        What is most important to Taiwan’s security is nothing more than acquiring the status of independent nation equally treated by all the nations in the world, in other words, to join the international community under the name of Taiwan Republic.  Use of arms against an independent nation, recognized by the world, would be considered as aggressive action apparent, and become the subject of sanction by the international community.  Therefore, by joining the international community, Taiwan can establish the foundation of security assurance.

        What is most important to Taiwan’s security is nothing more than acquiring the status of independent nation equally treated by all the nations in the world, in other words, to join the international community under the name of Taiwan Republic.  Use of arms against an independent nation, recognized by the world, would be considered as aggressive action apparent, and become the subject of sanction by the international community.  Therefore, by joining the international community, Taiwan can establish the foundation of security assurance.

       Taiwan inherited this perplexed problem from Chiang Kai-sek and Chiang Ching-kuo.  In order to break out from this difficult situation, whenever President Lee Teng-hui refers to “Republic of China” he always adds “in Taiwan”, and says “Republic of China in Taiwan”.  This is to emphasize that so-called Republic of China means a country existing in Taiwan, completely different from China.  However, this is only a lip comfort, which has no way of getting across to the international community.  Legally, Taiwan must stipulate its territory, clearly separate Taiwan from Mainland China, and become a completely different country.  Since giving up territorial reign of the Mainland would means giving up the sacred object of “unifying China”, and turn Taiwan into an independent country, the anxiety of many is not without ground.  But by doing this, Taiwanese residents can renounce the Republic of China’s fictional system, and set up the Republic of Taiwan.  Taiwanese people must decide what to do to prevent from being annexed by China.

        The Kuomintang regime has been using “Unification” as national goal and party creed for the past half century.  Therefore, being the Chairman of Kuomintang Party, Lee Teng-hui could not but pay lip service by expressing the opposite opinions, while promoting Taiwan independence on the other hand.  Because of this, China has pointed out that Lee Teng-hui is doing “Stealthy Independence”.  In fact, Lee Teng-hui was at pains being unable to speak the truth.  Under the circumstances, the oppositions (DPP or the new National Founding Party) should play the role of advocating Taiwan for independence.  If the oppositions put forward the assertion of Taiwan independence, the Conservative Faction would surely cry out to defend the Republic of China.  In the dispute between the two spheres of influence, the Reformist Faction centered by Lee Teng-hui could re-determine the reign of Taiwan’s territory based on the status quo of Republic of China. 

Becoming Independent is the Only Way out

      The presidential election took place on March 23, 1996, which symbolized the sovereignty of independent Taiwan, certainly surprised China in great extent.  On March 8, China suddenly announced the launching of “test” ballistic missiles into the open sea south and north ends of Taiwan Island; following with ball cartridge land, sea and air maneuvers along the coastal areas of Fukien Province.  It is obvious that by threatening to invade Taiwan by force, China contrives to collaborate with the impatient “Unification Faction” inside Taiwan, to hinder the current of Taiwan independence that grows day by day.

       What kind of obstructive results did China’s continual actions of “arm threat” really bring to the residential election?  Domestically, it greatly stimulated the national consciousness of Taiwanese people, increased the antipathy toward China, and raised the Taiwanese people’s cautiousness of defending their own country.  Consequently, the votes of Lin Yang-kan and Hao Po-chun, who did publicity campaign on “Chinese Communist would not come, if we pluck down Lee Teng-hui”, were decreased, while the votes of Lee Teng-hui, who was not moved by China’s “verbal attack and arm threat”, but called “There is nothing to be afraid of if Taiwanese only stick together“, were on the contrary increased.

      Internationally, the issue of Taiwan rarely and conspicuously became the focus of the press.  The U.S. Government, whose attitude toward Taiwan policy has been ambiguous, dispatched two aircraft carriers to Taiwan waters, and repeatedly warned China not to interfere with Taiwan election.  Japan also began to discuss the issue of mass self-defense right.  Even the West European countries had also warned against China.  The South East Asian countries had also felt they were being threatened by China’s war maneuvers.  Moreover, 600 journalists from 29 countries all over the world came to Taiwan to report the incident.  Like “waking up somebody from his dream”, the effect was surprisingly great.

        Every country in the world knows that Taiwan is a wealthy country.  However, by this incident they realize that Taiwan is actually “every inch a free and democratic country”.  In addition, some countries begin to exhibit the question: “How to deal with problem of excluding a free and democratic Taiwan from the international society?”.  After all, it is obvious that the tension of Taiwan Straits is an international problem, and not an internal affairs as claimed by China.

      Reviewing the course of democratization in Taiwan, one would find that the process of democratization was driven by powerful energies of the people from below, and with forced concession by the authority at the top, both parties agreed to meet each other under the collective fate consciousness at the end.  This was why it has been able to accomplish in such a short time.  It is an exceptional legend in the world history, and a precious “Taiwan Experience”.  Especially, compared to the Tienanmen Iincident that occurred at the same period, whereby Chinese democratization was wrenched without a trace, Taiwan is extremely lucky.

      Owing to the democratization in Taiwan, the Taiwanese people have finally acquired the right of self-determination, which had been neglected for four hundred years.  Now Taiwanese are able to secure their self-determination right by mean of parliamentary democratic system, and use their invaluable votes to elect the leader of their own country.  Because most of the countries that had socialistic system during the previous cold war have collapsed, free democratic principle for government system has now become today’s political wind in the world.

      Taiwanese are already disenchanted with China’s socialistic system.  Many Taiwanese, who went to Chinese Mainland, not only have seen and heard, but also have had the experience in person.  In China, power is everything, mammonism, lawlessness, unscrupulous, scandal and corruption, not to mention poor farmers and polluted environment.  Is it then not a big joke that country as such dares to declare that “Taiwanese are our fellow countrymen”, “Taiwan is the territory of China”, and intends to rule Taiwan?  Who would want to join with such a country?  The Taiwanese businessmen, who went to invest in Chinese Mainland, want to make quick money and return to Taiwan.  Even those retired old soldiers, who returned to their hometowns in the Mainland, almost all of them have returned to Taiwan.  They already know that there is neither they could long for, nor anything worthy of their respect in today’s China.

      The more progress Taiwan made in democratization, the more it becomes unacceptable to China.  Besides, if in case Taiwan were “unified” by China, freedom and democracy will eventually be destroyed.  We can see the foretaste of it from the problems of Hong Kong after it was returned to China.  Therefore, to preserve the free and democratic Taiwan, there is no other way but to become an independent country.  Free democracy and independence are like a pair of wheels; either of them is essential to the survival of Taiwan.  Not only the Taiwanese have noticed this, but the Chinese Communist regime has also understood the logic, and that is why they are showing more and more impatience and anxiety toward “today’s Taiwan”.        

      President Lee Teng-hui pushed the democratization reform from top down, began by dismantling the extraneous regime Republic of China.  This is to say, he forcibly terminates the perpetual Representatives of the Congress, and make Republic of China lose its extraneous nature.  Next by realizing complete re-election of the Congress he localized the Kuomintang Party and Republic of Taiwan.  Democratization and Localization progress together like a pair of wheels. 

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