British Columbia Population Data Warning

• Methods and Models Warning,
• Statistics Canada's Warning,
• The Working Environment,
• List of Methods and Modeling Deficiencies,
• Work Place Deficiencies,
• Concluding Remarks,
• About the Author,
• List of Accomplishments,
• Contact me and referencing this website

Introduction:

Population estimates and projections are used to justify the opening and closing of public and private facilities. The numbers are used to determine insurance rates for municipalities, and to address transportation and electrical generation needs. Therefore, people should be aware of how the population numbers are created.

People should be aware that the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services uses perks and intimidation to coerce analysts into changing population numbers. BC Stats first serves the Ministry of Finance and the GVRD, and last serves the people living in the rest of the province. The people of BC would be better served by Statistics Canada for population numbers.

The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services and the Government of British Columbia should be held accountable for the production of population numbers. By being open to public scrutiny of the real methods and models, there is an opportunity to improve the reliability of the information produced by the government. Independent statisticians should be allowed to audit BC Stats methods and models.

Purpose:

The purpose of this website is to inform people about how population numbers are created by BC Stats in the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services for the Government of British Columbia and to warn employees who provide the public with reliable information of how constructive dismissals are created and supported. Please verify the statements made here and find out for yourselves how the population numbers are created. Please contact the Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services and ask about the methods and models used to create population numbers, about the use of telephone landline hookups to estimate population change, the role of the various Ministries in the production and use of these numbers, the adjustments from the GVRD (and no other Regional District), the publication of methods paper, accountability in providing reliable information, etc.

This webpage covers two main aspects to the creation of population numbers by BC Stats in the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services: 1) the methods and models used, (are they sound?), and 2) the working environment, (are mistakes addressed and improvements made?).

1) Methods and Models Warning:

The provincial government purchases Telus data and uses the change in the number of telephone land lines as an indicator of population change along with electrical hookups. Telus data drives down the population estimates for the Lower Mainland. While employed as a population analyst with BC Stats, I requested a methods paper showing the testing of this variable but never received one. This paper should be made public. Instead I was told that "two indicators look better than one" (Don McRae, Director of BC Stats). There are many examples of how BC Stats was more interested in appearance rather than substance. Another problem with using telephone and electrical land line hookups is something referred to by statisticians as auto correlation.

The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services produces annual population "projections" for the next thirty years and sends the results to the Ministry of Finance for adjustment. I was told, after weeks of trying to find out why the migration numbers were different than the model results, that the Ministry of Finance had lowered the numbers because if migration to the province was higher than expected the government would "look good" (Don McRae).

The term "projection" implies impartiality in the creation of the population numbers for the future. They are numbers based on trends found in the historical estimates. Forecasts are numbers created with some assumptions that are open to discussion. The terms "projection" and "forecast" should not be used to describe the future population numbers published by BC Stats. The term population "projections" should be changed to something more accurate...your suggestions are welcome.

The Ministry of Health pays for the Population Projections (referred to as the P.E.O.P.L.E. series), but is not informed about adjustments. The Ministry of Education also uses the population numbers. The adjustments should be made clear to the analysts (rather than hide the fact that the Ministry of Finance has changed the numbers) and they should be made clear to the users and open to the public. When people go to meetings about the closing of schools for example, they should know how the population numbers have been adjusted. Statistics Canada does not send its products to the federal Ministry of Finance for adjustment.

After the adjustments are made by the Ministry of Finance, the sub-provincial population numbers are generated. Then the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services sends the results to the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) for adjustment, but not to any other Regional District. What is interesting is that the GVRD uses an independent contractor for its population forecasts while the rest of BC uses the Ministry of Labour and Citizen’s numbers. Statistics Canada does not send its products to Metro Toronto for adjustment and no other region of the country.

In the spring of 2005, the manager of BC Stats Population Section had a conference call with the GVRD which myself and a co-worker attended. The GVRD pointed out that the estimates were far too low especially for Richmond and Burnaby (cell phone use). After the conference call with the GVRD, I was told on several occasions to take people out of high growth areas such as Comox/Courtenay and Kelowna and put them into the Lower Mainland. I refused and was subjected to a constructive dismissal. Statistics Canada would not tell analysts to move people out of the rest of the country and put them into Metro Toronto.

Also, people should be aware that BC municipalities and aggregated unorganized areas in Regional Districts are split into two groups based on a flawed procedure. Electrical hookup data is provided to the Ministry by BC Hydro and Fortis. Unfortunately, after joining these datasets, all of the municipalities in Fortis area were found to have an increase in the number of people per household and are treated differently than most of the rest of the province (Surrey is included with the Fortis municipalities). It was obvious that there was a problem in joining the data from the two different sources. My requests for a review of the joining and splitting were considered confrontational. Other deficiencies include how the Provincial Electoral District Population Estimates and Projections were "created".

BC Stats should be referred as BC Perspectives or BC Perceptions: During a CBC radio interview (December 2007) with the Director of BC Stats, the host mistakenly suggested that BC Stats works closely with Statistics Canada on the 2006 Census migration release. In fact, they do not work closely together, and indeed they are at odds with each other. Statistics Canada warns users of the Demographics Estimates Compendium why BC's population numbers do not add up.

Statistics Canada's warning about BC Stats Population figures found in the annual "Demographic Estimates Compendium 2006":

"With the exception of British Columbia, preliminary estimates for July 1, 2006 were produced using the component method. The population estimates for this province were created by its respective agency. As a result, the sum of components does not equal the population growth for 2005-2006."

I invite Don McRae, the Director of BC Stats since 2003, to an open public discussion about BC Stats and Statistics Canada population numbers.

2) The Working Environment:

There are many other examples of deficiencies in the Ministry including how databases are misplaced, mislabeled, and mismanaged. Also, innovators and people who provide creative solutions are subjected to constructive dismissals. I was told that there are always problems and to get over it, then my co-workers would go on 45 minute coffee breaks and use the color printer for personal photos.

When I made improvements to methods, models, and database management, thereby reducing cost and time and errors, I was yelled at by every member of the Population Section and called an idiot, stupid, etc. etc. When I asked my co-workers to ask rather than yell, the manager called me into his office, pulled out a long ruler and slapping his hand with it told me never to ask my co-workers to ask rather than yell again. The manager was given the position without a fair and open competition.

I requested mediation through the BCGEU and the BCPSA but the manager stated that this would only make things worse and he got my co-workers, the ones who had been yelling at me, to complain that I made them feel unsafe. I again requested mediation and even asked for a transfer but this was denied. The BCGEU sided with the manager. The manager had been a long time employee and was a shop steward. The Ministry's contracted lawyer stated that my requests for mediation were considered by the manager to be a "game of chicken" (?...Bizarre). Also, the Deputy Minister considered that my use of the term "constructive resolution" meant that I had abandoned my grievance (?...Bizarre as well). I was fired and no mediation or arbitration was provided.

The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services is working hard to maintain its ability to change population numbers and to maintain its ability to intimidate employees. I requested mediation to address the quality of the work and the yelling before being fired and have spent two years attempting to get arbitration. My case is currently in front of the Labour Relations Board (LRB) but there is no time limit on a reply. The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services oversees the LRB.

Concluding Remarks:

The use of the term "statistics" implies the use of impartial methods and models, in an attempt to refer to reality. BC Stats should not be referred to as a "statistical agency" but rather would more accurately be referred to as BC Perspectives or BC Perceptions. If BC Stats wants people to think that they are a statistical agency there should be a full public inquiry into how population numbers are created. Independent statisticians and the public should be allowed to scrutinize the population section's methods and models. These problems should be viewed as an opportunity for improvement either by revamping BC Stats and the Population Section (5 people in the Population Section do the job of 2), or by allowing Statistics Canada to do population estimates and forecasts for BC. Indeed, the only reason that British Columbians pay extra taxes for BC Stats and the Population Section is so that the provincial government can adjust the data using non-statistical methods.

BC Stats is interested in appearance rather than substance. The examples include kicking out outliers (statistically unacceptable practice), adding Telus data without proper testing, changing numbers outside of the methods and models, accepting adjustments from other Ministries and from one Regional District etc., etc. When I told users of the population numbers how the numbers were created, I was considered a threat, rather than accountable, and subjected to a constructive dismissal.

BC Stats sets up the work place to have a scapegoat to take the blame for failings in the work, as well as the organization. The work place is set up to have one person forced to the bottom of a hierarchy who is excluded from meetings, both formal and informal, who is to take responsibility for mistakes made by co-workers, as well as mistakes in the methods and models, and sign off on work done incorrectly.

The scapegoat is stripped of responsibility of overseeing projects and instead is given more and more of the co-workers menials tasks with less and less time, directed to use the wrong datasets, wrong tools, and wrong instructions, and is yelled at when he or she fixes the co-workers mistakes and make improvements.

When the scapegoat asks for help in creating a positive work environment to address the yelling and the work, (one where people work towards the goals of providing reliable information, being accountable, results oriented and innovative, providing creative solutions, encouraging team work) he or she gets blamed for the problems and gets fired if he or she continues to advocate improvements.

Please let me know if you think that I was right or wrong in refusing to arbitrarily change population numbers and for requesting mediation to address the yelling in the BC Stats population section. Also, please make suggestions for new names for BC Stats.