H.H. Chartrand
April 2002
Exhibit 2
An Inventory of Technological Forecasting Techniques
Intuitive Thinking.
Creative thinking and forecasting
Brainstorming in different versions
“Delphi” technique
Utopia and science fiction
Exploratory Forecasting
Economic analysis
Extrapolation of time-series: simple analytical
models.
Extrapolation of time-series: phenomenological basis
Learning curves
Morphological approach to a systematic exploration of
technological possibilities
Operational models
Probabilistic exploratory forecasting
Qualitative historical analogy
Scenario-writing and iteration through synopsis
Time-independent contextual mapping
Normative Forecasting
Decision matrices: horizontal &
vertical
Integrated decision schemes based on relevance trees
Network techniques
Operational models
Project selection based on an operations research
approach
Project selection based on a decision theory
approach.
Systems analysis
Vertical decision matrices
Feedback Techniques
derived from Jantsch, E.,
Technological Forecasting in Perspective,
OECD, Paris 1967, p.6