THE NEXT GENERATION: A U.S.
FORECAST FOR THE YEAR 2020 *
by
December 1, 1994
Forecasts
a variety of socio-economic trends to
the year 2020. The implications of the
trends are discussed and conclusions drawn.
Trends include the aged, ethnics,
immigration, educated working women, occupations to enter and to avoid, violent
and property crimes, families in poverty, growth problems of a geographical
region, litigation and lawyers, budget and defense expenditures, industrial
patents, and U.S. pupil rankings on international tests.
Bio data
Mitchel F. Bloom
Dr. Bloom is President of Bloom Forecasting, Inc., 2122
MacArthur St. W., Tacoma, WA 98466. He
conducts economic, technological, demographic and financial research and
forecasts in diverse areas including the environment, education, and new
products and services. He was
previously Field Associate Professor of systems science and systems management
courses for the University of Southern California in Europe and Asia, been an
engineer/scientist specialist for Douglas Space Systems, and a research
engineer with Pittsburgh Plate Glass.
His latest consulting work was a technical report on the validity of the
EPA human health criteria for arsenic. Most recently, Dr. Bloom has qualified as
a Certified Financial Planner and a Registered Investment Adviser.
___________________________________________________
* Copyright 1994 Mitchel F. Bloom
FORECAST
SUMMARY
Over the next 25 years, the growth in the
number of retirees will cause attempts to reduce entitlements to the affluent
elderly. The huge percentage increase
in the U.S. ethnic population relative to the white will result in repeated
attempts to eliminate affirmative action and quotas in admissions, hiring and
promotion. Many more women will attain positions of power and prestige in the
professions and management which may have a more profound impact on our society
than any other trend. The fastest growing occupations will deal with health
care and information processing. The shrinking occupations will be those that
can be exported, can be automated or which are in industries causing pollution.
College-bound youth should enter professions requiring knowledge of specialized
and local laws, customs, clients, markets, organizations and data, whose tasks
cannot be exported easily to the third world.
Crime of all types will increase but violent crime will increase much
faster. Among the regions of the U.S.,
the Puget Sound area is slated to almost double in population by 2020 implying
a host of problems and opportunities related to rapid growth. The U.S. lawyer population will reach 1.3
million by 2020 allowing the United States to continue to claim the dubious
title of the litigation capital of the world.
The peace dividend resulting from holding defense expenditures in check
will gradually increase over the next 25 years with the money going primarily
into health, education and entitlements. The U.S. will see a definite decline
in its technological supremacy as other nations become more prosperous and
develop their scientific and engineering talents. Finally, weak educational performance of U.S. pupils on
international science and math tests serve as a warning that American public education
must improve or living standards will fall in the competitive world of the 21st
century.
METHODS AND
GOALS
To present a picture of America in the year
2020, projections are shown of selected U.S. trends of the past 30 years over
the next 30 years. Past trend lines
have been extended using the simplest of methods. Where past trends are approximately linear, extrapolation has
been made by assuming constant increment per year; where exponentially
increasing, extrapolation has assumed constant growth rate per year. Bureau of Census projections of a trend are
used when available. Neither
seasonality nor cycles have been factored into the forecasts. The aim was to present a general picture,
not a detailed description.
What is presented here is one scenario,
among many possible scenarios, of what the world will look like in the year
2020. I assumed that selected past trends will continue into the future, all
other things remaining the same which, of course, they will not. I will attempt to answer such questions as:
What kind of country will your children experience in the year 2020? What kinds of a jobs are they likely to
hold? Who are likely to be their
classmates and their neighbors? Will
the level of crime be such that they will be afraid to go out at night? Are inter-ethnic and inter-age-group
conflicts going to grow? Can they rely
on Social Security when they retire?
In short, will they have about the same or a much different quality of life
as you have today?
THE GRAYING OF AMERICA
We
are getting older and grayer at an increasing rate (Table 1). In 1960, 9% (17 million) of our population
was over age 65; by 1990 that figure jumped to 12% (31 million); and by 2020 it
is projected to grow to 17% (54 million).
Expect, as a result, an increase in sales of housing, appliances,
travel, and human resources to provide goods and services to those elderly and
often affluent citizens( for example, medical, financial, shopping,
maintenance, fitness and beauty care, transportation, education, and
entertainment).
Uppermost
on these senior citizens' minds is security, defined by responsive public
safety, reliable financial investments, and quality medical care. Because the grays vote, they have political
clout. Besides, they own assets,
including time, as well as money, to write to and meet with their
representatives, which reinforces their voting power. And they are organized
into the biggest lobby in the U.S., the AARP.
Expect that they will support gun control, stiffer sentencing, low
inflation and comprehensive medical care, including long-term care for those
who are no longer able to fend for themselves.
The cost of this care is already causing some members of Congress to
look for ways to generate tax revenues to pay for it. One possibility might be
by lowering the $600,000 federal estate tax exemption equivalent to $200,000
and raising the maximum federal estate rate from 55% to 70%.
The
resources to tax are there; by 2015, according to the 1989 Survey of Consumer
Finances, the elderly will annually bequeath assets worth $336 billion to 3.4
million recipients, each bequest averaging $99,000. A more astounding figure is the cumulative total of $10.4
trillion expected to be passed through 115 million bequests in the period from
1990 to 2040, for an average of $90,000 per bequest.
TABLE 1
THE
GRAYING OF AMERICA
=================================================
YEAR POPULATION TOTAL U.S. % AGE 65
AGE 65+ POPULATION TO TOTAL
(MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) POPULATION
=================================================
1960 16.6 181 9.2
1980 25.7 228 11.3
1990 31.0 249 12.4
2020 53.5 323 16.6
=================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993,
Table 27, p.25; Ibid.,
Table 14, p.15; Ibid., Table 17,
p.17.
THE RETIREMENT DILEMMA
While the
U.S. total population will increase by 30% from 1990 to 2020, the age 65+
population will grow by 73%. By the year 2020, there will be 54 million
Americans in the retirement category of over age 65; by 2025, there will be 62
million. To support such a large
population of retirees will require the contributions of an increasing number
of workers. Will there be enough
workers to do this?
Currently
there are 3.2 workers supporting each retiree through Social Security and other
tax contributions. By 2020 that figure
will drop to 2.5 persons per retiree (see Table 2). Another way to look at the problem is that for benefits to the elderly
to be maintained over the next 27 years, Social Security taxes on the working
population will have to be raised by a factor of 1.28 or by 28% in constant
dollar terms. Such tax increases will
be strongly resisted by those working
which will lead to the previously discussed gradual reduction of
entitlements to the elderly.
The
pressure on the working population will build to advocate cuts in entitlements,
especially to the affluent citizens with other sources of income through the
following measures:
1) increased taxation of retirement benefits
2) tightening eligibility rules
3) raising the age for benefits to be received
4) reducing the scope of benefits
5) capping the per capita benefits per year, per
incident, or per lifetime -- or a combination of the
above.
Since the
percentage of retirees voting is much higher than that of the young, and their
time and money resources are so much greater, expect fierce intergenerational
political battles between retirees and the working population as workers
attempt to gradually reduce the entitlements of the elderly.
TABLE 2
THE RETIREMENT DILEMMA
=================================================
YEAR TOTAL TOTAL % RETIRED RATIO
RETIRED POPULATION TO TOTAL OF WORKERS
(MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) POPULATION TO RETIRED
=================================================
1993 32.7 257.6 13% 3.2
2020 53.7 322.6 17% 2.5
=================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC,
1993, Table 17, p.17; Ibid., Table 622, p.393.
THE BROWNING OF AMERICA
Increasingly, we and our children will see a browning of America. From a brown population (including black,
Asian, Native American, Hispanic) of 11% (21 million) in 1960, to 25% (46
million) in 1990, expect a 38% (121 million) brown population by 2020. Of this ethnic population, by year 2020,
roughly two out of five will be black, two out of five Hispanic, and one out of
five Asian (see Table 3).
As
your children increasingly live in a multi-ethnic America, intermarriage will
become more common, especially between whites and Asians and whites and
Hispanics. Blacks will be the last
group in America to intermarry in large numbers, but eventually, over time --
longer than our forecast horizon of 2020 -- they too will blend into the
general population.
In
the meantime, if America does not change its affirmative action policies and
quota system, ethnic tensions are projected to exacerbate as the brown
population increases. Young white males in particular will bear the brunt of
what they perceive as unfairness and injustice in admissions, hiring and
promotions policies. The most recent
projections of the Census Bureau1 show that white (excluding Hispanic) youth
comprise 67% of the 14-24 age group in 1995; they will comprise only 54% in
year 2025. At that rate, by year 2037
white, non-Hispanic males will be in the minority for the first time in the
history of the United States.
As a
result of population changes and competition for jobs in a peacetime, surplus
labor America over the next 25 years, expect a political battle between those
who would maintain the status quo (affirmative action, group rights and ethnic
quotas) and those who want a color-blind society where merit alone becomes the
criteria for advancement.
Whereas, in the period from 1990 to 2020,
America's white population will grow by 20%, the brown population will increase
by 95% or nearly 4 times the rate of whites from 1990 to 2020. And the browns will be predominately young.
Recent Census Bureau 1994 projections over the period from 1990 to 2025 show an
increase of 69% of the brown population in the age groups 14 to 24 but a 4%
decrease in the white, non-Hispanic population in the same age group. In the
same period, non-Hispanic, white grays, who constitute 85% of grays (persons
over age 65) in 1995, will by 2025, see their percentage slowly decline to only
76%, which is still a significant majority of the grays.2
This means that we can expect further ethnic
tensions because Social Security benefits derive mostly from current
contributions of current wage earners rather than reserve funds built up by
current recipients. Expect, therefore,
increased resentment by young browns who will be heavily taxed to provide
generous benefits for a burdensome gray population that is overwhelmingly
white.
TABLE 3
THE
BROWNING OF AMERICA
===========================================================
TOTAL
YEAR TOTAL WHITE BROWN % BROWN
POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION* TO TOTAL
(MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) POPULATION
===========================================================
1960 181.0 158.9 20.5 11.3
1980 228.0 195.0 46.4 20.4
1990 250.0 209.0 62.2 25.0
2020 323.0 251.0 121.0 38.0
===========================================================
* Brown population includes
black, Asian,
Native American, and
Hispanic (both white
and black) populations.
===========================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 12, p.14; Ibid., Table 17, p.17.
IMMIGRATION
Examination of patterns of immigration over
the years indicates that Mexican immigration is by far the largest from any
country. It is over three times greater
than the next largest immigration source country, the Philippines.
From 14% during the 1960's and 1970's,
Mexican immigration climbed to 23% of total immigration in the 1980's. In the decade 2010 to 2020, Mexican
immigration is projected to equal 29% of a much greater total immigration of 11
million persons. Immigration is projected to grow from 3.2 million in the
decade of the 1960's to 11.3 million in the decade of the 2010's. In other words by 2020, over 10 million
immigrants per year will legally enter the United States. Of these, roughly 30 percent or 3.3 million
will be Mexicans.
In actual numbers, the decade spanning
2010-2019 will see a 55% increase in immigration to the U.S. over the 1980-1989
decade -- from 7.3 million to 11.3 million immigrants. The legal Mexican immigration will comprise
a growing percentage of the total immigrants, going from 23% in the 1980's to
29% in the 2010's. The illegal Mexican
immigration, for which reliable data is obviously unavailable, will become an
increasingly unmanageable problem as Mexico's population continues to grow much
faster than it can create jobs over the next 25 years.
TABLE 4
IMMIGRATION
============================================================
DECADE TOTAL MEXICAN % MEXICAN
IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION TO TOTAL
(MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) IMMIGRATION
============================================================
1960's 3.2 0.44 14%
1970's 4.5 0.64 14%
1980's 7.3 1.65 23%
2010's 11.3 3.30 29%
===========================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 5, p.10; Ibid., Table 8, p.11.
RISE OF THE
MACHO WOMAN
In 1970 15% of employed women held
professional/technical jobs. By 1992
that figure rose to 22% and is projected to reach 31% by year 2020 (see Table
5). By contrast, the percentage of
employed men in professional/technical jobs increased from 14% to 16% from 1970
to 1992 and is expected to grow to 19% by 2020.
In the managerial/administrative category of
jobs, the percentage of employed women who are engaged in those occupations has
grown dramatically from 4.5% in 1970 to 14% in 1992, and is forecast to be 25%
by 2020. The percentage of employed men
engaged in managerial/administrative jobs, during the same period are projected
to actually decrease i.e., from 14% in
1970, to 13% in 1992, and finally, to 12% by year 2020.
If these forecasts are realized, then it is
increasingly likely that if you are an employed male in year 2020, your boss
will be a woman, a reversal of traditional roles. Females will accrue superior organizational power along with
higher incomes from their jobs. They will begin to put social pressure on their
male subordinates. Expect more sexual harassment of males by females at the
workplace.
Also look for more older women marrying
younger men - ten to twenty years their junior - and mentoring them, if they
assume the appropriate role, as a dependent, subordinate partner. For a man who
had grown up in a female-head-of-household, single-parent home, any
psychological problems in taking instructions from an older woman would be
minimized. Regardless of the age of the
husband relative to the wife, it is increasingly unlikely that a woman who
controls the budget, makes personnel decisions and plans the future of her organization
will change into the traditional
housewife when she steps across the threshold of her home after a day's work of
responsibility over dozens of people, many of whom are men. Increasingly more
women will be in that situation by 2020 than are today.
There will still be macho men in year 2020
in America, but you will find them in declining job categories, such as the
military, farming, fishing, mining, moving freight and heavy industrial
jobs. Yet even these jobs over time
will be highly automated and capable of being performed by women who, because
of equal opportunity laws, could receive priority over men in hiring and
promotion. In the author's opinion: the
macho man in America appears to be an endangered species, weakened by
regulations and immolated by feminists, which no environmental group is
fighting to save.
TABLE 5
RISE OF THE MACHO WOMAN:
GROWTH OF WOMEN IN
PROFESSIONAL/TECHNICAL AND
MANAGERIAL/ADMINISTRATIVE JOBS
=====================================================================
PROF/TECH MGRL/ADMIN PROF/TECH MGRL/ADMIN
YEAR PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE PROF/TECH %
OF WORKING OF WORKING OF WORKING OF WORKING
WOMEN WOMEN MEN MEN
=====================================================================
1970 14.5 4.5 14.0 14.2
1975 15.7 5.2 14.6 14.0
1982 17.7 7.4 16.5 14.7
1992 21.7 13.6 16.0 13.3
2020 30.9 25.0 18.5 12.2
=====================================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 671,
p.426; Ibid., Table 693, p.417.
THE FASTEST GROWING OCCUPATIONS
The
Department of Labor has projected the fastest growing occupations over the
period from 1988 to year 2000 (see Table 6).
Two areas of high growth are 1) communications and computers and 2)
health care. Note that both of these
areas deal with information, can be done as well by women as men, require
formal education, and satisfy human needs which are apparently unlimited.
The
health care occupations will grow the fastest, 60% to 70% over the period. Health care specialists, especially those,
such as physician's assistants and nurse's aides, who can help control costs
and deliver services at lower rates, will be in high demand. We will also be seeing large increases in
nurses. There will be also be an
increased need for nurse practitioners, home health care aides, and managers
who can integrate the new networks composed of hospitals, HMO's and
rehabilitation clinics.
Computer and information specialists (including those who use computers
intensively in their jobs) will grow by about 50%. These occupations include
travel agents and financial services people who use application programs as
well as systems analysts who design and develop such software.
TABLE
6
FASTEST GROWING OCCUPATIONS IN THE U.S.A.
=====================================================
PERCENT
GROWTH RATE
FROM
OCCUPATION 1988-2000
=====================================================
MEDICAL ASSISTANT 70
HOME HEALTH AIDE 68
RADIOLOGICAL TECHNICIAN 66
MEDICAL SECRETARIES 58
SECURITY/FINANCIAL SERVICES 55
TRAVEL AGENTS 54
COMPUTER SYSTEM ANALYSTS 53
COMPUTER PROGRAMMERS
48
HUMAN SERVICE WORKERS 45
CORRECTION OFFICERS 41
ELECTRICAL/ELECTRONIC ENGINEERS 40
INFORMATION CLERKS 40
=====================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1990, (110th Edition) Washington, DC, 1990, Table 646,
p.392.
THE FASTEST GROWING PROFESSIONS
A number of professions will prosper in the 1990 to 2005 period
according to Fortune magazine (see Table 7).
Among these are managerial consultants, educational administrators,
property and real-estate managers, accountants/auditors and
marketing/advertising/public relations professionals. This group will grow from 25 to 35 percent in the projected period.
Note that none of these professions can possibly be exported to third
world countries, as many data entry, engineering and programming jobs can; they
do not involve manufacturing anything and hence are "Pacific
rim-proof"; and they require
knowledge of our laws, databases, language, customs, culture, localities and
organizations, all of which can be performed only by Americans working in
America. Advising your son or daughter
to enter into one of these professions, or one with similar third world
insulation characteristics, may be the best advice you could give to your
child.
TABLE 7
FASTEST GROWING PROFESSIONS IN THE U.S.A.
========================================================
PERCENT
GROWTH RATE
FROM
PROFESSION 1990-2005
========================================================
MANAGEMENT CONSULTING 70
EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATION 68
PROPERTY MANAGERS 66
ACCOUNTANTS/AUDITORS 58
MARKETING/ADVERTISING/PR 55
========================================================
Source: Woods, Wilton,
"Jobs Americans Hold," Fortune, July 12, 1993, p.54.
OCCUPATIONS TO AVOID
If given the choice, it would be well to stay away from a number
of occupations that are projected to decrease during the period from 1988 to
2000 (see Table 8). A rapid scan of the
occupations that are expected to shrink in numbers places them into three
categories: 1) jobs which can be exported to developing countries and performed
at much cheaper labor rates; 2) jobs which are being automated out of
existence; and 3) jobs which are being eliminated because of environmental laws
and regulations.
In the first category, jobs which can be exported, are electronic
equipment assemblers, sewing machine operators, and textile machine operators.
These jobs are labor intensive and can be performed as well or better by third
world workers at much lower wages. If,
on the other hand, the jobs stay in America, then they are automated to the
point where fewer workers are required. Those workers who are kept will be
highly motivated and very productive, using the latest technology in their
work.
In the second category, jobs which are being automated out of
existence, are telephone/cable line installers, hand packers, crushing/mixing
machine operators, and farmers, an occupation which has decreased steadily over
the past sixty years.
In the third category, job reductions in occupations due to
environmental laws and regulations are just beginning to be felt. Workers in nuclear power plants, petroleum
and chemical plants, heavy manufacturing facilities, rubber, plastics and
mining all face increasing tighter federal and state regulations, closer
monitoring, more detailed reporting, increasing costly cleanup, and
never-ending legal liability of indefinite magnitude. Employees in these hard-hat occupations have traditionally been
unionized and well-paid. Profits, however, are declining because of
environmental regulations and overseas competition. As plants age, companies
are deciding to close down rather than invest in new plant and equipment in
what they judge to be a hostile economic and legal climate. Jobs lost in these pollution producing
plants rarely ever return. The dismissed workers should be retrained for available
alternate occupations, but these will be probably at much lower wages and fewer
benefits.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, from 1990 to
2005 the percentage of high paying manufacturing jobs that are projected to be
lost are as follows: petroleum and coal (25.5%), basic steel products (21%),
industrial machinery and equipment (13.5%), motor vehicles and equipment (9%),
stone, clay and glass products (7.5%), electronic and other electric equipment
(6%), and lumber and wood products (3%). However, on the positive side,
chemicals and allied products are projected not to change in employment over
the period. Rubber and plastics are projected to gain 16.5%; this is still much
lower than the 33% growth of that sector over the past 15 years.
TABLE 8
SHRINKING OCCUPATIONS IN THE U.S.A.
=====================================================
PERCENT
GROWTH RATE
FROM
OCCUPATION 1988-2000
=====================================================
ELECTRONIC ASSEMBLERS -44
FARMERS -23
STENOGRAPHERS -23
TELEPHONE, CABLE REPAIR PERSONS -21
SEWING MACHINE OPERATORS -14
CRUSHING/MIXING MACHINE OPERATORS -14
TEXTILE MACHINE OPERATOR -13
HAND PACKERS -7
=====================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1990, (110th Edition) Washington, DC, 1990, Table 646,
p.392.
VIOLENT AND
PROPERTY CRIMES
The crime picture in the year 2020 is
mixed. Both violent crimes and property
crimes will increase, but violent crimes will increase much faster. Total violent crimes are projected to
increase by 77% over 1991 levels by the year 2020, whereas total property
crimes are projected to increase by only 30%.
In terms of your The probability of becoming a victim of a violent crime
(assault, murder, rape or robbery) will increase by 38% from 1991 to 2020 if
trends continue as they have over the past 16 years. On the other hand, the probability of becoming a victim of a
property crime (including burglary, larceny, arson and car theft), the
probability will increase by less than 2% in the year 2020 relative to 1991.
Alarm systems, steering wheel locks,
anti-theft devices, wall-mounted TV cameras, magnetic tags on merchandise, and
other computerized systems have all contributed to the almost zero growth in
the likelihood of becoming a victim of a property crime. But whatever the reason, it appears that
your person, rather than your property, will be at increasing risk 30 years
from now if trends over the past two decades continue unabated.
In 1994 crime was at the top of the list of
problems about which the public was most concerned. This has sent a message to lawmakers at all levels of
government. Public pressure has
resulted in a wave of legislation mandating life sentences for violent and drug
related crimes for repeat offenders.
Yet it remains to be seen whether the three-strikes-and-you're-out laws
will be effective in reducing the violent crime rate.
The lucrative drug business accompanied by
violent gang wars and summary gang executions will continue to foster an
increase in the murder rate. Gun
control laws are not expected to significantly cut the violent crime rate
because it is felt the criminal will always be able to obtain lethal weapons. Legalization of drugs would make a big
difference in the power of gangs by eliminating their rich source of income
and, possibly, their deadly turf battles.
It would free the police for other public safety activities such as
making the urban neighborhood streets safe once again. However, the perception of danger from violent
crime will have to become much worse before legalization of drugs is seriously
considered by the American people.
Before that happens, we will see tighter regulation over the sale and
possession of guns, especially possession by minors, and stiffer sentencing by
the courts.
TABLE
9
VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIMES
===================================================================
VIOLENT* PROPERTY**
YEAR VIOLENT* PROPERTY** CRIME RATE CRIME
RATE
CRIMES CRIMES PER 100,000 PER 100,000
(THOUSANDS) (THOUSANDS) PERSONS PERSONS
===================================================================
1972 835 7414 401 3560
1980 1309 11987 581 5319
1990 1820 12656 732 5089
1991 1912 12961 758 5140
2020 3376 16872 1045 5224
% INCREASE 77% 30% 38% 2%
1991-2020
===================================================================
*Violent crimes include assault, murder and rape.
**Property crimes include burglary, larceny and car theft.
===================================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1982-83, (103th Edition) Washington, DC, 1983, Table 287,
p.174; Ibid., 1993, (113th
Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 301, p.192.
FAMILIES IN POVERTY
The
poverty level is defined by a poverty index of the Federal Interagency
Committees, revised in 1980. It is
based solely on money income and does not reflect non-cash disbursements such
as food stamps, Medicaid, or public housing.
It is updated yearly to reflect changes in the Consumer Price
Index. For a family of four persons in
1990, the level was $13,359 annual income.
The
number of families below the poverty level declined in the 1960's from 8.2 to
5.3 million. From 1970 the number of families
increased reaching 7.1 million by 1990.
Using the trend from 1970 to 1990, the number of families below poverty
level is projected to equal 11 million by year 2020. This represents a 77% increase from 1990 to 2020 in numbers of
families below the poverty level (see Table 10).
A
different picture forms if we look at the percentage of families below the
poverty level. From 18.1% in 1960, it
fell to 10.1% by 1970 due to the stimulus of the Vietnam War and the
anti-poverty programs of the Johnson and Nixon Administrations. After 1970, the percentage climbed very
slowly to 10.3% in 1980 and to 10.7% by 1990.
However, by 2020 the percentage of families below the poverty level is
projected to fall to 7.6%.
The
7.6% forecast for the year 2020 depends on the assumed number of person per
household (pph). See footnote in Table
10.
Whichever pph assumption is made, the percentage of families below the
poverty level is forecast to decline over the next 25 years despite the
publicity given to homeless , female head of household, and chronic welfare
families, even though the absolute numbers of families in poverty will
increase.
The
problem with using past trends to project future poverty level families is that
the 1970-1990 period was one mainly of high job growth, high military
expenditures and growing federal budget deficits. This economic picture will not necessarily continue in the
1994-2010 period. In fact, every
indication is that job growth will be modest at best, the military will be scaled back and budget deficits will be
maintained at current levels or gradually decline. Changes in the economic climate could cause many families, just
making it now, to fall below the poverty level as large companies continue to
downsize, as government pares its payroll to meet budget limits, and as new
jobs require computer/technical skills.
It is possible that we could see a great many more families fall below
the poverty level by year 2020 than is forecast here.
Although
the percentage of families in poverty is projected to drop from 10.7% to 7.6%,
this forecast could be on the optimistic side.
It is entirely possible for a family with both spouses working part-time
or temp jobs in 1994 to fall below the poverty level. A large segment of U.S. families could drop out of the middle
class into the working poor category before 2020 if the parents lack education
and/or marketable skills.
TABLE
10
FAMILIES BELOW THE POVERTY LEVEL
=============================================
NUMBER OF PERCENT OF
YEAR FAMILIES TOTAL
(MILLIONS) FAMILIES
============================================
1960 8.2 18.1
1970 5.3 10.1
1980 6.2 10.3
1990 7.1 10.7
2020 11.0 7.6*
% INCREASE 77% (29%)
1990-2020
============================================
*Percentage below poverty depends on the pph, persons per household, which can vary from 1.93 to 2.62 persons corresponding respectively to 8.9% to 6.6% below the poverty level. The average is 7.6%.
============================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 744,
p.473; Ibid., Table 65, p.55.
AN EXAMPLE OF A GROWING REGION
In
addition to noting that the elderly and the ethnic populations will grow much
faster than the population as a whole in the next 25 years, certain regions of
the country will also grow much faster than the overall population. One of these regions is the northwestern
part of the U.S., especially the Puget Sound region with its major metropolitan
area, Seattle. It is a leading center
of trade with the Pacific Rim, home of high tech firms, and location of the
University of Washington, the a leading recipient among all U.S. universities
of federal research funds.
During the time period, 1990 to 2020, when the U.S. population is
projected to grow by 33%, the Puget Sound region is expected to double in size
or grow by 100%. This rapid growth will put tremendous pressures on an already
overcrowded highway transportation system.
From Everett in the north to Olympia, the capital of Washington, in the
south, traffic is continuous during the daylight hours. Growth of the bedroom suburbs of Tacoma, Gig
Harbor and towns beyond, has caused such a pile up of traffic that a second Tacoma
Narrows Bridge is being considered. A
light rail from Seattle south to Tacoma and east to Bellevue is planned.
Demand for housing has caused Tacoma, located midway on Interstate 5, to
be one of the hottest real estate markets in the country. East of Seattle, the city of Bellevue is one
of the richest suburban areas in the United States. The Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area, headquarters of such
well-known companies such as Weyerhaeuser, Immunex, Microsoft, Boeing,
Nordstrom, McCaw Communications, Frank Russell and Starbucks, is attracting
young professionals from all parts of the country to come and live in an area
that thus far has been relatively free of the social and economic problems that
have beset many of the older cities in the east. The Puget Sound area promises for the next several decades to be
one of the country's most dynamic areas.
While population growth is good for
business, it places a heavy load on the infrastructure -- roads, bridges,
schools, public services -- requiring increased tax revenues and bond levees.
The region is just beginning to comprehend the unintended consequences rapid
growth: worsening traffic jams, rapidly increasing housing and land prices, defeated school bond issues, budget
cuts, overloaded classrooms, and the desparate need for new jails to house a
burgeoning criminal class.
Table
11
Puget Sound versus USA population projections
==========================================
USA PUGET SOUND
YEAR POPULATION POPULATION
(MILLIONS) (MILLIONS)
==========================================
1980 226 2.4
1990 249 3.0
2020 323 6.0
RATIO OF 4.3 2:1
POPULATION
2020 TO 1990
==========================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 1, p.8; Ibid., Table 42, p.39.
AMERICA: THE LITIGENOUS SOCIETY
There are 18 million lawsuits filed per year in the U.S. It is said that
on the average in the United States you can expect to be sued five times in
your life. This is partly the result of
the American legal system in which the plaintiff bears none of the legal costs
of the defendant in a civil court case if the plaintiff loses the case, as in
the United Kingdom. Another reason is
the offer of many attorneys of the plaintiff bar to agree or offer to being
paid by contingency fee, taking anywhere from 25% to 50% of any settlement won
by the plaintiff. This means that the
plaintiff does not bear even the cost of his own legal counsel if he loses but
pays only if he wins, in or out of court.
Because of the high cost of legal services incurred by the defendant,
usually attorney's fees of $125 to $225 per hour or more, attorneys for the
defendant often advise their clients to settle the case before it ever comes to
trial. Ninety-five percent of all
lawsuits are settled in this way.
Finally, the huge amounts awarded by juries in cases that do eventually
come to trial have convinced defendants, especially those with deep pockets, to
settle out of court, with the terms of settlement rarely revealed.
Granted all of the above, and with courts so jammed that years must pass
before a case can be heard by judge or jury, America would seem to be in need
of legal reform. Legal reform, however,
requires lawmakers to streamline a civil system that is financially biased
against the defendant (he can only lose), neutral towards the plaintiff (can
lose or gain), but in favor of the lawyers for either party (they always gain). Since most lawmakers are lawyers, it is not
easy for them to pass laws that will reduce their future incomes, especially
when the Association of Trial Lawyers of America opposes reform and contributes
heavily to political campaigns. Notwithstanding the recent political changes in
Congress, it is a safe bet to expect the present system with minor
modifications to continue and, if anything, to proliferate in all its odious
aspects.
Looking at past trends, we see that numbers of lawyers
have increased steadily since 1960 at a rate
of about 18 thousand per year. The data
are very close to a straight line projection (r2 = .94). By the year 2000, there will be nearly one
million lawyers and judges in America; by the year 2020, that figure will rise
to 1.3 million. America will have, and
currently does have, the most lawyers, the most laws and the most complex legal
system in the world. There is no
apparent end in sight to the growth in lawyers. It appears that the entire
legal system is increasingly out of control and the concept of fairness and
justice all but forgotten.
Lawyers, laws and litigation - the bottom line: The number of lawyers in America is forecast to increase by over
500,000 over the period from 1992 to 2020.
This represents a 65% increase in less than 30 years. If the projected number of 1.3 million
lawyers does become reality, the implications are: more laws, regulations and
procedures at all levels of government affecting all types of businesses; more
need for a lawyer before any action can be taken; more ambiguity and confusion
regarding the interpretation of laws; vast increase in the number of lawsuits,
especially those on contingency fees; increased jamming of the dockets
requiring years before a case comes to court; proliferation of legal
specialties making it difficult to find the right lawyer; increasing legal
malpractice suits; higher fees for lawyers, outstripping inflation; and,
finally, successful opposition by a strengthened and regrouped (after the
Republican sweep of the 1994 elections) plaintiff bar to effective legal
reform.
TABLE
12
AMERICA: THE INCREASING LITIGIOUS SOCIETY
======================================================
NUMBER
OF
LAWYERS
EMPLOYED
YEAR
(THOUSANDS)
======================================================
1960 285
1963 296
1970 325
1972 322
1982 630
1983 651
1987 707
1989 774
1992 788
2000 938
2020 1300
======================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1984, (104th Edition) Washington, DC, 1984, Table 696,
p.419; Ibid., 1990, (110th Edition) Washington, DC, 1990, Table 647, p.393; Ibid., 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 646, p.392.
DEFENSE SPENDING AND THE END OF THE COLD WAR
In
actual dollar terms defense spending has not decreased much. But relative to total budget expenditures,
the defense share has decreased from 27% in 1989, the year the Berlin Wall
fell, to 21% in 1991, the time of the Gulf War, to 20% by 1993. The "peace dividend", meanwhile,
has been divided among human resources (education, health, Medicare, welfare,
etc.) all of which experienced sizable increases since 1989. Rebuilding the physical infrastructure of
the country has not received very much of an increase in resources during the
same period.
Using linear regression, the total federal budget is projected to
increase to nearly $3 trillion and the military to over $600 billion by
2020. Even with the increase in the
military budget, double its 1994 value in current dollars, it will still
constitute only 21% of the total federal budget in 2020 (see Table 13).
The "peace dividend": The total federal budget is projected to
double to nearly $3 trillion by 2020 compared to $1.5 trillion in 1993. The
defense budget in that same period will grow to $620 billion from $289
billion. The percentage of the total
budget devoted to defense will remain about 21% over the next 25 years, thereby
satisfying the Republican contract promising to stop the Democratic downsizing
of the military. The amount of the federal budget allocated to non-defense
purposes will therefore increase from approximately $1 trillion in 1990 (the
year the Berlin Wall fell) to $2.3 trillion in 2020. This increase, much of it in the form of entitlements, amounts to
the "peace dividend" resulting from the end of the cold war.
TABLE 13
NATIONAL DEFENSE EXPENDITURES
==================================================================
TOTAL NATIONAL % NATIONAL
BUDGET DEFENSE DEFENSE TO
OUTLAYS EXPENDITURES TOTAL BUDGET
YEAR (BILLIONS
$) (BILLIONS $) OUTLAYS
==================================================================
1970 196 82 42%
1975 332 87 26%
1980 591 134 23%
1985 946 253 27%
1988 1064 290 27%
1989 1143 304 27%[1]
1990 1252 299 24%
1991 1324 273 21%[2]
1992 1382 298 22%
1993 1474 289 20%
2000 1807 395 22%
2010 2378 507 21%
2020 2950 620 21%
==================================================================
NOTES: [1] Berlin Wall fell in November, 1989.
[2] Gulf War
occurred in January, 1991.
==================================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 509, p.328.
AMERICA'S
TECHNOLOGICAL CREATIVITY
Is America falling behind or gaining in the
technological race? Looking at the U.S.
and foreign corporate patents, we would expect, based on straight line
extrapolation, to see a 24% increase in corporate patents by the year 2020 over
1991. The corresponding figure for
foreign corporate patents is, however, 96%.
In the next 25 years, foreign corporations will file patents for
inventions at almost four times the rate of U.S. corporations.
In terms of the ratio of U.S. to foreign
patents, from 1.73 in 1976, it fell to 1.00 by 1990, and is projected to drop
to 0.64 by 2020. In other words, while
there were five U.S. patents filed for every three foreign patents in 1976, by
2020 there will be only two U.S. patents filed for every three foreign
patents;.
Another measure of technological progress is
industrial research and development.
Using two methods of forecasting and averaging the results, the industry
R&D (as opposed to military) is forecast to be $199 billion by 2020 in
contrast to $107 billion in 1991. Thus,
a doubling of R&D is projected over the next 25 years which seems at first
glance to be okay.
But is that really enough? According to data
from the National Science Foundation and the O.E.C.D., the percent of gross
domestic product going to industrial R&D in the U.S. hovers at about 2%,
while for Japan it is 3% and for Germany, 2.7%. In comparison to Germany and Japan, we are certainly not matching
our most serious economic competitors.
U.S. technological supremacy: Although the United States will continue to
lead all other countries in patents, its lead is eroding. It will become increasingly difficult for
the U.S. to be number one in all technological fields as other developed
nations devote more of their increasing human and financial resources to
research and development.
TABLE 14
CREATIVITY AS EXPRESSED IN PATENTS FOR INVENTIONS
====================================================================
U.S. FOREIGN RATIO OF
CORPORATE CORPORATE U.S. TO
PATENTS PATENTS FOREIGN
YEAR (THOUSANDS) (THOUSANDS) PATENTS
====================================================================
1976 34.4 19.9 1.73 [1]
1980 27.7 19.1 1.45
1985 31.2 26.4 1.18
1990 36.1 36.0 1.00
1991 39.2 38.1 1.03
2020 48.5 74.8 0.64 [2]
====================================================================
NOTES: [1] In 1976 there were 5 U.S. patents for every
3 foreign patents.
[2] By 2020 there
will be 2 U.S. patents for every
3 foreign patents.
====================================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1993, (113th Edition) Washington, DC, 1993, Table 872, p.544.
U.S. PUPILS: MIRED IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE CLASS
The
previous section has shown that we do not spend enough of our GDP on R&D
compared to our competition and that our patent hegemony is steadily being
eroded. Both R&D and patents depend
on the technological level of our population.
To get an idea of what the future of that level might be, examine the
comparative rankings on mathematics and science proficiency tests given in
1991.
These tests were administered to 9 and 13 year old pupils in 20
countries. Two types of tests were
given, one in mathematics and the other in science. The mathematics test included 75 questions on numbers and
operations, measurement, geometry, data analysis, statistics and probability,
algebra and functions. The science test
included 64 questions on life, physical, earth and space sciences, and the
nature of science. Results for a
selected nine rankings out of the twenty countries are shown: 1st, 2nd, 3rd,
4th, 5th, 8th, 13th, 14th and 15th (see Tables 15 and 16).
The
performance of U.S. pupils ranked 14th out of twenty in mathematics and 13th
out of twenty in science. Those scores
do not auger well for our technological future. Israel, a country whose military and economic survival depends on
high technology, ranked 8th on both mathematics and science. But right at the top were two Asian tigers,
South Korea and Taiwan, number 1 and 2 on both tests. And to show that the Europeans have not lost the ability to
compete, the 3rd, 4th and 5th places were held by Switzerland, Hungary and
Russian-speaking former Soviet Republics.
Because both Japan and Germany, our most fierce economic competitors, were
not included in the twenty tested countries, we do not know how they would have
ranked. It is a good bet that they
would have been near the top.
TABLE 15
COMPARING EDUCATION AMONG COUNTRIES:
SELECTED MATH TEST RESULTS IN 1991
==========================================================
RANK COUNTRY
==========================================================
1 SOUTH KOREA
2 TAIWAN
3 SWITZERLAND
4 SOVIET REPUBLICS
5 HUNGARY
8 ISRAEL
13 SPAIN
14 U.S.A.
15 JORDAN
==========================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1992, (112th Edition) Washington, DC, 1992, Table 1369, p.830.
TABLE 16
COMPARING EDUCATION AMONG COUNTRIES:
SELECTED SCIENCE TEST RESULTS IN 1991
==========================================================
RANK COUNTRY
==========================================================
1 SOUTH KOREA
2 TAIWAN
3 SWITZERLAND
4 HUNGARY
5 SOVIET REPUBLICS
8 ISRAEL
13 U.S.A.
14 IRELAND
15 JORDAN
==========================================================
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the
Census, Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1992, (112th Edition) Washington, DC, 1992, Table 1369, p.830.
Educational comparisons: The technological edge becomes the key factor in
the global economic game. In the
information age of the 21st century, knowledgable human resources -- rather
than capital, low-cost labor, abundant land or rich natural resources -- will
become the most important factor in determining which country has the
technological edge. Knowledgable human
resources are a direct result of the society's educational system. Test results comparing U.S. pupils with
those of 20 other countries on math and science proficiency tests are not
reassuring. American pupils
consistently rank well within the lower half of the twenty countries
tested. Unless our pupils do better,
America will have difficulty over the long run in maintaining its living
standards.
On the other hand, America is perhaps alone
among all countries in encouraging and enabling its people to retrain
themselves at any age with education geared to the marketplace. The dynamism of
our society, especially our private sector, affords unlimited opportunity to
the energetic and disciplined who want to learn. The resources are there. That is the reverse side of our much
maligned public education system and a cause for hope.
REFERENCES
1 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical
Abstract of the United States: 1994, (114th Edition) Washington, D.C.,
1994, Tables 23 and 24, pp. 24-25.
2 Ibid.